The top 4 race in the English Premier League is now trimmed down to a few prospects making the cut, with the case of Man City and Arsenal quite sealed. Man United has looked shaky, currently sitting behind 3rd-placed Newcastle in the standings. Liverpool is 4 points below the cut while Brighton, Tottenham and Aston Villa have a distant possibility of being in European competition next season.
We preview the top-four race in the EPL in this post based on many factors such as a team's form, remaining matches and the odds of such a probability.
Top Two Sealed as Man City and Arsenal Battle for PL Trophy
With the first and second EPL spots already confirmed, Man City and Arsenal continue to oscillate between the two spots, angling for the big prize. Any setback, even a draw, could be detrimental to either side with as few as five league matches left to play.
However, the battle for the final UEFA Champions League places could drag on to the last game of the season. The following teams are in a pole position to secure a UCL spot by the end of the 2023/23 EPL season.
Newcastle United @ 1/16
Newcastle United occupies the third spot in the EPL table with 65 points. And for odds of 1/16, Newcastle's probability of making the cut is 94.07%. The Magpies have made St. James' Park a fortress where they won ten games, drew five and lost a solitary game.
The bookmakers price Newcastle to feature in the top four following its form at home where it still has three games to play. With four wins in the last five matches, Newcastle has a top-four spot to lose this season. Besides, it only has two away league matches against teams currently at the bottom half of the table. With three home games against title contenders Arsenal (arguably the most difficult, Brighton and Leicester, Necastle should easily get some points at home including two away games against Leeds and Chelsea.
Manchester United @ 1/8
Man United's probability of making the top four in the 2022/23 EPL season currently stands at 88.89% with odds of 1/8.
Despite losing the last EPL match with the last kick of the game, the bookies' price Manchester United at 1/8 to make the EPL top four. The Red Devils powerhouse currently occupies the last spot in the EPL top four.
Manchester United has five matches to take their chances in the top-four race. The Red Devils have exhibited a fantastic display in front of their fans and Old Trafford this season with three more home games to go against Wolves, Chelsea and Fulham. The last time Manchester United suffered defeat at home in the league was in August 2022. They will play two away games against West Ham, which is quite difficult and another against Bournemouth which has fought its way out of the danger zone.
Liverpool @ 7/2
The Reds have a glimmer of hope to make the top four cut albeit at a distant probability of 22.22%. Liverpool found its footing quite late this season, but sneaking a point through the nose of the Gunners seemed to have brought momentum at Anfield. The Reds have recorded five wins from the last five games–scoring fifteen goals. Liverpool's remaining matches are four – two home fixtures against Brentford and Aston Villa. They will play twice on the road the Foxes and the Saints.
The bookies price Liverpool at 7/2 to occupy the last spot in the EPL top four. Assuming Manchester United fails to put aside the midweek defeat by Brighton, Liverpool may overtake them in the race to the top four.
Brighton @ 18/1
Everybody in Brighton's camp is in dreamland seeing their team turn over big names like Chelsea, Manchester United and Wolverhampton. The bookies price Brighton at 18/1 to book a spot in next season’s Champions League. But that only translates to a paltry 5.26 probability. Brighton has three home matches and two away games. If the other teams continue posting mixed results, it is a matter of time and Brighton may find itself in the top four places.
Tottenham Hotspurs @ 225/1
Tottenham finds itself in a distant seventh position in the EPL table with 54 points but with just four games left this season, the Champions League is surely out of reach. The bookmakers price them at 225/1 to make the top four because of its recent slump in form–avoiding defeat twice in the last five matches. The probability of Spurs making the top four based on the bookmaker odds is 0.44%.
This article was most recently revised and updated 10 months ago