Nigeria trail Guinea-Bissau by three points. That is the state of Group L in the 2027 Africa Cup of Nations qualifiers as of 10 November 2026, with 12 points still to play for. The Super Eagles host Tanzania at the Godswill Akpabio International Stadium in Uyo on Friday 13 November at 17:00 Lagos time, 16:00 GMT. The return leg in Tanzania follows on Tuesday 17 November, 14:00 Lagos time.
One place, and Tanzania cannot take it
One ticket. Tanzania are in. They qualified automatically as co-hosts with Kenya and Uganda. CAF says the highest-placed other team goes through, so Nigeria, Guinea-Bissau and Madagascar fight over one place.
| Team | P | W-D-L | GF-GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guinea-Bissau | 2 | 2-0-0 | 5-0 | +5 | 6 |
| Nigeria | 2 | 1-0-1 | 2-4 | -2 | 3 |
| Madagascar | 2 | 0-1-1 | 2-3 | -1 | 1 |
| Tanzania | 2 | 0-1-1 | 1-3 | -2 | 1 |
Nigeria beat Madagascar 2-1 in Uyo on 25 September. Four days later they lost 3-0 away to Guinea-Bissau. That result decides which way the tie-break leans.
What 12 points can and cannot do
Every side has four games left. The ceilings are 18 for Guinea-Bissau, 15 for Nigeria and 13 each for Madagascar and Tanzania. Nigeria's 15 is exactly what Guinea-Bissau reach by winning their three games against the others and losing to Nigeria.
Nine is the first target.
Two wins over Tanzania would put Nigeria on nine. Whether that is enough depends first on Madagascar against Guinea-Bissau on Thursday 12 November, 16:00 GMT. The two sides repeat the fixture on 17 November at the same hour.
| Madagascar v Guinea-Bissau, 12 Nov | Guinea-Bissau | Madagascar | Nigeria after beating Tanzania on 13 Nov | Gap to leader |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guinea-Bissau win | 9 | 1 | 6 | 3 |
| Draw | 7 | 2 | 6 | 1 |
| Madagascar win | 6 | 4 | 6 | 0 |
Over both Madagascar games, Nigeria's nine leads only if Guinea-Bissau take two points or fewer, while three points leave them level.
Under the CAF regulations, teams level on points are split first by results between them: points, goal difference, goals scored, then away goals. Overall group figures come only after that. A draw of lots is last.
Guinea-Bissau already hold a 3-0 win in that head-to-head. If the two finish level on points, Nigeria must beat them at home in the March 2027 window, since a draw leaves Guinea-Bissau ahead on head-to-head points. A 1-0 win makes it 3-1 on aggregate to Guinea-Bissau, two goals short, and a 2-0 win still leaves Nigeria one short of squaring the goal difference between the two games. A 3-0 win levels everything. Away goals included, so overall goal difference decides. Only 4-0 puts Nigeria ahead.
Squad news and form
Samuel Chukwueze is out of both Tanzania games. Africasoccer.com reported on 5 November 2026 that he has had surgery in London for a ruptured tensor fasciae latae tendon in his left hip, an injury picked up in October, with the operation carried out by Professor Ernest Schilders, that also rules him out of AC Milan's next four matches. Nigeria have won one of their last five matches, and they conceded three goals twice in that run, in the 3-0 defeat by Guinea-Bissau and in the 3-3 draw with Russia on 6 October.
Eric Chelle's selection is covered in our Super Eagles squad report, and the stadium arrangements in our Uyo venue guide.
History is kind to Nigeria against this opponent: 2-1 at the 2025 Africa Cup of Nations on 23 December 2025, 1-0 in a 2016 qualifier and 0-0 in 2015. Tanzania also meet Guinea-Bissau and Madagascar in the March window. Any point they take from Nigeria in November reshuffles the whole table.
This article was most recently revised and updated 15 seconds ago
