Nigeria host Tanzania at the Godswill Akpabio International Stadium in Uyo this evening. Kick-off is 5pm in Lagos (16:00 GMT). Madagascar's 1-1 draw with Guinea-Bissau on Thursday leaves the Super Eagles four points behind the leaders, one more than the gap as we reported on 10 November.
Group L after Thursday's draw
| Team | P | W-D-L | GF-GA | GD | Pts | Games left | Max pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guinea-Bissau | 3 | 2-1-0 | 6-1 | +5 | 7 | 3 | 16 |
| Nigeria | 2 | 1-0-1 | 2-4 | -2 | 3 | 4 | 15 |
| Madagascar | 3 | 0-2-1 | 3-4 | -1 | 2 | 3 | 11 |
| Tanzania | 2 | 0-1-1 | 1-3 | -2 | 1 | 4 | 13 |
Seven games remain.
Our recalculation from Sportmonks results puts 21 points still in play, and the gap that matters most is the one between Nigeria and a leader who has not yet lost. Tanzania are already in the finals as co-hosts.
Guinea-Bissau have played one game more than Nigeria, and their ceiling of 16 still sits above Nigeria's 15. A win tonight lifts the Super Eagles to 6, one point off the top, and keeps all 15 available. Anything less costs them ground: a draw leaves a ceiling of 13, and a defeat caps them at 12.
Guinea-Bissau beat Nigeria 3-0 in September.
Head-to-head results come first when teams finish level. The March home game against them is therefore the decider in a points tie, and Guinea-Bissau already lead that mini-table 3-0. Guinea-Bissau's own run-in is Madagascar at home on 17 November, then Tanzania at home and then Nigeria away, both in March. Even two wins from those three would take them to 13, so the leaders are not out of reach for a Nigeria side that wins out.
Six games without a clean sheet
Nigeria's last clean sheet was the 2-0 win over Zimbabwe on 26 May. Since then Sportmonks lists six matches: one win, two draws, three defeats. Eight goals for, 14 against, or 2.3 conceded a game. Tanzania have scored once in 180 group minutes, losing 2-0 to Guinea-Bissau and drawing 1-1 with Madagascar. Their last win on record in Sportmonks is a 6-0 against Macao in March.
The record favours Nigeria, unbeaten in three meetings: 0-0 in a 2015 qualifier, 1-0 in a 2016 qualifier and 2-1 at the Africa Cup of Nations on 23 December 2025. Never more than two goals, though.
Camp news and what the coaches said
Victor Osimhen, Kelechi Iheanacho and Maduka Okoye are not in Eric Chelle's squad, and Samuel Chukwueze is out injured, all covered in our squad report. All 24 invited players are in camp in Uyo, Pulse reported on 12 November. Captain Wilfred Ndidi was among the last to arrive. Chelle, quoted by P.M. News on 12 November, said: “I know the group and the players I selected. If we win, I take the credit, and if we lose, I take responsibility.” The same report quotes Tanzania coach Miguel Gamondi: “Our mentality is not to play defensive football; we will also attack Nigeria.”
Chelle also said Tanzania have nothing at stake and called the game a good test for his players, but Gamondi's promise to attack is a fair warning to a defence that has conceded in each of its last six games and has not kept a clean sheet since May.
The return leg is in Tanzania on 17 November at 14:00 Lagos time, 13:00 GMT, four days away.
This article was most recently revised and updated 18 seconds ago
